Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been clear: the war he launched against Israel on October 8 has nothing to do with Lebanon and its 13 disputed border points with the Jewish state, but solely with supporting Hamas in the Gaza Strip. He said his war will not end until a permanent ceasefire is reached – a position similar to the blackmail model used by Iran in Yemen, where its Houthi proxies have seized a stranglehold on one of the world’s most strategic waterways, increasing global transportation costs fivefold, straining supply chains and raising inflation, damaging US national interests. So what will Biden do about it?
The Biden administration has appeared receptive to the demands of the Iran-backed militias and has sought to convince Israel of the merits of a permanent ceasefire, even if it allows Hamas to regroup and retake Gaza. (In Thursday’s presidential debate, Biden insisted that instead of pushing for the destruction of Hamas in Gaza, Israel should “go for Hamas like we did with Bin Laden,” a hunt that lasted 10 years.) With a ceasefire, Israel could supposedly buy calm on its northern border and force the Houthis to withdraw.
Biden must avoid crises at all costs, as he is significantly behind his challenger four months before the US presidential election.
Such thinking is also consistent with Biden’s National Security Strategy, which makes “de-escalation” the goal of his Middle East policy.
But de-escalation is a means, not an end. War is one of the many tools at governments’ disposal. A “no war of any kind” policy signals to Iran and its militias that America is toothless and they can act with impunity. It is no wonder that Iran and its militias have started at least three wars since Biden took office – in Gaza, Lebanon and off the coast of Yemen. Had Tehran feared American retaliation, it would not have encouraged its proxies to test the limits of Washington’s patience.
The Houthis’ war on global shipping has demonstrated Biden’s shortsightedness, which he had relied on the Houthis’ common sense, removed them from the terror list and pressured Saudi Arabia to end the war against them.
As many knew – except Team Biden – the Houthis were anything but reasonable. The militia began to hit Biden where it hurts: in the economy, and Washington had to act. It tried to build a global coalition, but its efforts showed that under Biden, America had fewer than a dozen friends willing to put in the effort.
Even the Houthis’ arch-enemies, the Saudis and Emiratis, refused to join the coalition protecting the Red Sea shipping lanes. Gulf capitals calculated that Biden would be inconsistent and could change course midway, leaving them exposed to the wrath of the Houthis and Iran if Washington suddenly pulled out for any reason. America’s Gulf allies were watching a war unfold in their own backyard.
The Gulf governments were right. America fought half a war and allowed a ragtag militia to sink one ship and set fire to another six months after the war began. Why half a war? Because the Biden administration apparently believes that wiping out the Houthis would lead to chaos.
If the Houthis are Washington’s hope for regional stability, it is no wonder that Biden’s Middle East policy is one big mess, producing three wars but no solutions.
Former US President Barack Obama, one of the most war-hostile presidents who tried his best to appease Iran, occasionally said in his comments on the Iranian nuclear war that “all options are on the table”, thereby suggesting that America would not shy away from using military force against Iran.
When former US President Donald Trump killed Qassem Soleimani, the move curbed Iran’s appetite for destruction, at least during Trump’s term in office: uranium enrichment remained below five percent and militia harassment of America’s friends and allies stopped.
Biden’s foreign policy philosophy is one of appeasement, which has weighed on America’s allies, especially Israel, in dealing with Hezbollah. Washington has so far insisted that it opposes a full-scale war against Israel, even though Hezbollah started it and shows no signs of stopping.
If the goal must be “no war,” then few tools will remain to protect the national interests of the United States or its allies.
Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis see America’s weaknesses and exploit them to set precedents, such as giving Hezbollah and the Houthis a say in everything Israel does in Gaza, and perhaps soon everything Israel does in the West Bank or Syria, and after that everything else America does. By then, Biden would have succeeded in ending wars, minimizing America’s global influence, and seriously damaging America’s allies.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), a nonpartisan organization focused on national security and foreign policy.
