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Just four months before the 2024 presidential election, Joe Biden’s candidacy is being called into question as coverage of his first presidential debate appearance was rocky, leaving strategists concerned about whether he can inspire voters enough to secure a second term.

On Thursday, June 27, Biden faced off against Donald Trump at CNN’s Atlanta studios, struggling to fact-check Trump’s false claims live and at times embarrassed as he tried to talk about his accomplishments and platform.

Incumbent presidents often lose their first debates because their track record in the White House makes them an easy target for criticism from outside candidates. But this debate was unusual in that both Biden and Trump have served in the Oval Office before — and both candidates, 81 and 78 years old, are under special scrutiny for their cognitive health.

While a single debate performance isn’t usually enough to ruin an entire campaign, the rumor mill is already in overdrive thinking about what a new Democratic ticket might look like. Here’s what could theoretically happen if the party pressured Biden to resign before the Democratic National Convention.

Is Biden already confirmed as the Democratic candidate?

The most likely way for Biden to drop out of the race would be to do so voluntarily, given that 3,900 delegates (more than enough to secure the nomination) are already committed to the president before the party convention, which begins on August 19.

The Democratic National Committee’s charter stipulates that all delegates won by a candidate in the primaries are required to support him or her at the convention. From the charter: “Delegates elected to the convention who pledge their support to a presidential candidate must, to the best of their knowledge and belief, reflect the views of those who elected them.”

However, there is one condition: the candidate must decide of his own accord to drop out of the race.

Even if Biden were to drop out of the race, it remains unclear who would replace him as the party’s nominee — or how that person would be chosen. The party’s charter does not provide a mechanism that would replace a nominee before the convention, and no major party has ever replaced a nominee in this way. It would essentially become a battle of free against free, as interested politicians would begin lobbying delegates for a chance at the nomination.

There is another problem ahead of the 2024 election: Democrats had moved up the timeline for Biden’s nomination so that he could appear on Ohio’s ballot in November. Although no date has been set, Biden will effectively be nominated before August 7, the Ohio ballot deadline.

Would Biden ever drop out of the race?

Biden’s team has continued to project confidence that the incumbent can defeat Trump for a second time in November, and its campaign messages have emphasized the Republican’s shortcomings during the debate. At this point, it seems unlikely that he will drop out – a move that would be unprecedented in American politics.

An adviser told CNN on Friday, June 28, that Biden not only plans to stay in the race, but will also participate in the second presidential debate, scheduled for September.

Unofficially, of course, there is at least talk in Democratic circles of exploring the options, but at this point it is only a murmur, and the decision is largely up to Biden and his most trusted allies to go along with it. The risk of changing a candidate so close to an election – and rejiggering Biden’s massive campaign – makes that option unlikely.

Who would replace Biden if he were not the candidate?

It’s all speculation right now, and with little precedent, it’s hard to say who would replace Biden in the event of an abrupt departure. Polls of other key Democratic politicians have previously suggested that replacing someone new would hurt Democrats’ chances of defeating Trump, but that could change if the hypothetical poll becomes a reality.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who is Biden’s running mate for 2024, would be an obvious candidate who could potentially catch up to Biden’s poll numbers given their similar track records. The Biden-Harris team would also have an easier time promoting Harris since she is already a key part of their election strategy.

But in such a close election, and given Harris’ mediocre approval ratings, she would not necessarily be the most attractive choice for skeptical voters who would no doubt back a chance for someone less closely intertwined with Biden’s legacy.

Before the first presidential debate had even ended, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s name was already being floated as a possible successor. He has long been rumored to be considering a possible run for the White House, and he is excellent at motivating voters and getting a message across. After Thursday night’s debate, he defended Biden’s performance to reporters and refuted rumors that he was seeking the role.

Midwestern governors have also been making waves online, particularly Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who was once on Biden’s vice presidential list. Both have proven to be good campaigners and productive legislators.

And former 2020 presidential candidates – current Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren – both boosted the party four years ago.

The list goes on and on, which is why it might be so difficult to agree on a replacement so late in the game.