The Iowa Hawkeyes have a solid, experienced squad with a good roster. After a season in which the team earned 10 wins despite having the third-worst points total in the country, the Hawkeyes have mixed expectations.
Many equate the Hawkeyes with their weak offense, and as long as Iowa struggles to score 17 points or more, they won’t get far on the national stage.
Others point to the fantastic defense that gives Iowa the chance to stay close in almost every contest.
Whichever way you look at it, Iowa has a more realistic path to the College Football Playoff than most FBS programs, including many other Power 4 teams. But earning a spot in the first 12-team playoffs won’t be easy.
These are the biggest challenges Iowa must overcome in 2024 to secure the best chance of making the tournament.
Cade McNamara returns as the starting quarterback for the Hawkeyes after suffering a torn ACL just before the halfway point of the 2023 season. The hope is that McNamara can return to form and stay healthy throughout the season to give Iowa a chance.
However, McNamara’s injuries have piled up over the course of his career. In 2022, he suffered an injury to his right leg that required surgery. During fall camp in 2023, he sustained a quadriceps injury to his right leg. The torn ACL was in his left knee.
To be honest, there is a certain amount of luck involved with injuries. It is completely out of his control.
However, if he stays healthy, that is no guarantee of success for Iowa. Sure, a healthy McNamara is the Hawkeyes’ best chance at success, but that doesn’t mean they’re in the running for a spot among the top 12 teams in college football.
McNamara needs to have his best season yet. Statistically, that can mean a few things. One thing is for sure: He doesn’t have to stage a comeback like Joe Burrow. But he does need to make sure the offense does its part to impact the scoreboard every game.
McNamara will not be alone in his efforts to improve the offense. Tim Lester will take over as the new offensive coordinator and will look to breathe new life into the offense.
The offense will operate with much of the same intent as it has long done under head coach Kirk Ferentz. While there’s nothing wrong with a ground-and-pound scheme, efficiency is required to be successful.
In the passing game, the best target is Luke Lachey, who is also returning from injury. Lachey will need to be a star player capable of taking difficult targets as the defense will focus on him.
On the ground, Leshon Williams and Kaleb Johnson return after averaging four yards per carry in 2023. While the averages were fine, both suffered from last year’s unstable offense. The offense needs to sustain the attacks more effectively to give the duo a real chance to make an impact.
It all starts up front, though. The offensive line is solid, but there are enough question marks to consider it a slightly above-average unit in the Big Ten. Keeping McNamara upright and opening running lanes for the backs will be more important than ever to show that last year’s offense is well and truly over.
As long as Lester continues to make solid plays, Iowa should see a drastic improvement on offense. However, an average offense could still knock Iowa out of the running when it comes down to the eye test to determine the final playoff spots.
On the surface, Iowa has a pretty easy schedule. Ohio State, Washington and Wisconsin are likely to be the toughest games of the 12. Iowa will be the favorite in most games unless teams like Michigan State, UCLA and Nebraska suddenly bounce back.
Still, it’s not so much who Iowa is playing as who they’re being compared to. Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Penn State have legitimate CFP title aspirations but have much tougher schedules. Even if Iowa has more wins than some of those teams, they may not look quite as good on paper.
The new structure of the conference also plays a role. Iowa’s chances of reaching the Big Ten Championship are much lower without divisions. Considering that both teams in the Big Ten Championship are likely to make the 12-team field unless they win a tie, the number of spots available to Iowa is reduced if they don’t play in Indianapolis.
The same is true in the SEC. Let’s say both teams in the SEC Championship Game and both teams in the Big Ten Championship make the playoffs and the other conference champions have automatic eligibility. In that case, Iowa realistically only has five spots available.
When you look at the strong teams like Iowa fighting for those five spots, it becomes clear how difficult it really is to make the playoffs.
All in all, it’s a real challenge for the Hawkeyes to make the playoffs. It won’t be easy, but as long as the Hawkeyes perform well in the right matchups, they’ll have their fate largely in their own hands this season.
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