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Redesigning the European food system will reduce agricultural land by 44% while cutting greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by 70%. This reduction is possible with current consumption of animal proteins. If we also reduce the amount of animal proteins we eat and replace them with plant proteins, land use could be reduced by 60% and emissions by 81%.

These are the remarkable results of the model calculations of PhD student Wolfram Simon. He is a researcher at the Department of Farming Systems Ecology at Wageningen University & Research. The study was recently published in Natural food.

“We combine two approaches: circular agriculture (reusing residual streams and avoiding waste) and the protein transition (increased consumption of plant protein as a replacement for animal protein). We also take into account the healthiness of the food.

“For example, people who eat a completely vegan diet have a higher risk of vitamin B12 and omega-3 fatty acid deficiencies. This needs to be compensated for, which in turn has an impact on the nutritional system.”

“We modelled 18 scenarios to model the protein transition in the European food system. Using this holistic approach to modelling circular food systems is quite unique and challenging. I spent most of my PhD developing the optimisation model (called CiFoS),” says Simon.

Optimal ratio between animal and plant ingredients

A transition to a purely plant-based diet is often seen as the best thing for the planet. However, Simon’s calculations show that this is not necessarily the case. There is a certain optimum for consuming animal products, namely 40% animal protein (instead of the current 60%).

This is partly due to the nutrients that animal products can provide. Below 18 grams of animal protein, deficiencies occur. These can be corrected by taking supplements and fortifying the diet, by the way. However, if you do not take supplements or fortify, land use and greenhouse gas emissions rise again from the optimum to correct the deficiencies.

“In addition, animals are recyclers in the system. They can recycle nutrients from parts of the organic waste and byproducts in the food system that are inedible for humans and convert them into valuable animal products,” says Simon.

An optimal food system looks very different from today’s agriculture. We need different consumption behavior. For example, today we eat more protein than is necessary (and healthy).

“You might think that reducing protein consumption would have a big impact on sustainability, but that was not the case in our study. The biggest contribution comes from consuming protein sources with a lower environmental impact and redesigning agricultural production.

“Grow crops in the most productive places where the climate and soils are ideal and the soils produce the highest yields. Grow fewer crops in those places where production conditions are difficult due to harsher growing conditions.

“Organic waste must be avoided as much as possible and all residual streams must be reused as animal feed or fertilizer. In addition, minimizing transport routes can lead to improvements,” says Simon.

Less beef, more chicken

Although it is possible to achieve significantly more sustainable food systems overall with the same amount of animal protein, the composition of protein sources in the diet changes greatly. More chicken and fish, less beef, dairy and eggs. This is because cattle farming requires a lot of land and produces a lot of greenhouse gas emissions (methane). Reducing the share of this sector in agriculture ensures greater sustainability.

Another contribution to sustainability is reducing animal consumption. One important way to achieve this is to dramatically increase the area of ​​land used to grow pulses, especially soybeans, where climatic conditions allow. These are high in protein and contain many essential amino acids. The plant can fix atmospheric nitrogen, reducing the supply of nitrogen from synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Cereals and dairy products remain important sources of protein in the diet.

Simon says: “This research is useful for setting long-term goals. When you think about changes in the production system and in nutrition, what are the best strategies and direction of change to achieve greater sustainability?”

“We want to offer ideas for redesigning the food system and quantify and test the impacts of proposed actions, such as circular economy and protein transition. Government and public bodies can then make more informed decisions on redesigning the current food system to reduce environmental impacts.”