The European Parliament elections saw gains for parties belonging to the two populist far-right groups – the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the more radical Identity and Democracy (ID) group. Parties belonging to the populist or far-right group (ECR, ID or no party affiliation) came first in five countries: France, Italy, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia.
In Germany, Poland and the Netherlands, these parties came in a strong second place. In France and Germany, the two most influential EU member states, these elections led to extremely worrying developments.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN, member of the ID group) received just over 30 percent of the vote, twice as much as Macron’s liberal Renaissance party. Macron then called early parliamentary elections for later this month, opening up the possibility of “cohabitation” with a far-right prime minister for the remainder of Macron’s final term in office.
In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) received just under 16% of the vote, coming in second behind the Christian Democrats with 30% and ahead of the Social Democrats with 14%, the Greens with 12% and the FDP (Liberals) with 5%. These last three parties form the German government coalition, and their combined result of 30% reveals a deep dissatisfaction among the population with those in power. The new left-wing populist anti-war party BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) is entering the European Parliament with 6%.
The gains of the right-wing populist parties were smaller than predicted in the polls at the beginning of the year. Overall, the relative balance of power in parliament has not changed radically: the centrists (EPP, S&D and Renew) retain a slightly shrunken majority (403 out of 720 seats). The ECR gained four seats and now has 73, the ID gained nine seats and now has 58 seats in the new parliament. The latter result reflects the move of the AfD (which won 15 seats) from the ID to the independent category. Voter turnout averaged 51% across the 27 member states, only slightly higher than in 2019.
The relative success of the far right appears to be due to a number of factors: migration flows, economic uncertainty, the perceived impact of European environmental policies, elite Euroscepticism and (in some cases) opposition to the funding and arming of Ukraine. It is reasonable to assume that the relatively stronger far right in the new parliament will push these issues.
The right-of-centre European People’s Party remains by far the largest delegation in Parliament, with 189 seats, more than a quarter of the total. The centre-left Social Democrats lost just four seats, gaining 135, while the pro-business centrist Liberals (Renew) lost 23 seats and remained in third place with 79 seats. These three groups formed a de facto coalition to support the legislative agenda of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the German Christian Democrat. The coalition will have a slightly reduced majority of seats, which could put von der Leyen’s election for a second term as European Commission President in jeopardy. Voting is secret, and a defection rate of around 10% is considered normal.
The EPP may owe its strong result to its tougher stance on migration and the eco-transition to slow the advance of the far right. This will make it more difficult for the EPP to work with the S&D. It is possible that the EPP will pass legislation in these two policy areas with the votes of the ECR, which will raise the profile and importance of the populist right in the new parliament. The Greens lost 18 seats and fall to 53 in the new parliament.
Maneuvers on the right side
The ECR and ID delegations, if they merged, would make the far right the third largest grouping. One obstacle to such a merger was the role of the German AfD, which was expelled from the ID shortly before the elections after AfD lead candidate Maximilian Krah stated in a press interview that membership in the Nazi-era SS did not automatically mean a personal crime. In response, Marine Le Pen successfully pushed for the AfD’s expulsion from the ID’s ranks.
Ursula von der Leyen has courted Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni (Brothers of Italy – ECR) to support her re-election for a second term as President of the European Commission. But Meloni (one of the few European politicians currently enjoying strong popular support) has been trying to persuade the EPP to govern with the ECR and ID rather than the S&D and the Liberals. As a step towards this goal, she has called for a merger of the ECR and ID. Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orban and former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (of the Law and Justice party – ECR) have supported such a plan. The combined strength of the ECR and ID could further increase their already considerable influence on the positions of the centre-right EPP.
Although the combined performance of the ID and the ECR was not enough to trigger a major “wave” to reshape the European Parliament, the results in France and Germany in particular were significant. European Parliament elections remain essentially national elections, a test of strength between government and opposition parties. The results in Germany and France pose the risk of a domestic political deadlockand undermine the already fragile Franco-German tandem that is so important in defining the EU agenda. The election result also underlined the role of the Italian Meloni in reviving the role of the far right in European politics.
