The far-right Rassemblement National (Rassemblement National) took the lead in the first round of the French parliamentary elections on Sunday, according to polling institutes’ forecasts. This puts the party one step closer to forming a government in the second round. This is a bitter blow to centrist President Emmanuel Macron and his risky decision to hold a surprise election.
When Macron dissolved the National Assembly on June 9 after a heavy defeat to the Rassemblement National in the European Parliament elections, he assumed that the anti-immigration party, with its historical ties to anti-Semitism, would not repeat this success because France’s own fate was at stake.
But that’s not what happened. French polling institutes predicted that the Rassemblement National and its allies would receive around a third of the vote on Sunday. Macron’s prime minister warned that France could end up with the first far-right government since World War II if voters do not pull together in the second round next Sunday to prevent that scenario.
ALSO READ| Macron’s ministers fear that the electoral success of the extreme right will lead to social unrest in France
“The extreme right is on the verge of power,” said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. He twice described the Rassemblement National’s political promises as “catastrophic” and said that “not a single vote should go to the Rassemblement National” in the runoff election.
According to forecasts by French polling institutes, Macron’s centrist parties came a distant third in the first round of voting, behind the Rassemblement National and a new left-wing coalition of parties that had joined forces to prevent the parties from joining forces in power.
Winning a parliamentary majority would allow Marine Le Pen, leader of the Rassemblement National, to install her 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella as prime minister, the culmination of years of efforts to make her party less repugnant to majority voters. She inherited the party, then called the Front National, from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has been convicted several times for racist and anti-Semitic hate speech.
But the Rassemblement National is not ready yet. There is still another hot week of campaigning ahead before the decisive final vote next Sunday, so the final outcome of the election remains uncertain.
Before a cheering crowd waving the French tricolor flags – blue, white and red – Le Pen called on her supporters and voters who did not support her party in the first round to help her win and give it a convincing majority in parliament. That scenario would force Bardella and Macron into a difficult power-sharing arrangement. Macron has said he will not step down before his term ends in 2027.
Only the second round will show whether Le Pen’s party and her allies will get the absolute majority they need to comfortably form a government and then begin implementing their promises to dismantle many of Macron’s key policies and foreign policy programs, including halting French supplies of long-range missiles to Ukraine in the war against the large-scale Russian invasion. The Rassemblement National has historical ties to Russia.
The far right’s more confrontational approach to the European Union, its plans to reverse Macron’s pension reform and its Rassemblement National promises to boost voters’ purchasing power without clearly outlining how it intends to finance this promise could also unsettle European financial markets.
Some forecasts by pollsters suggested that, in a best-case scenario for the extreme right, the Rassemblement National and its allies could together overcome the 289-seat hurdle needed for a secure majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.
But depending on how the second round turns out, the extreme right could also fail and leave no single bloc with a clear majority, polling institutes predicted. Predictions are difficult because of the two-round voting system. The first official results of the first round were expected later on Sunday.
As early as Sunday evening, rivals on the extreme right were making plans to eliminate some of their candidates in the second round in order to pool votes against the Rassemblement National.
Voter turnout was estimated to be at least 66 percent, according to poll estimates, making it the highest in a first round of parliamentary elections in 27 years.
Many French voters are frustrated with inflation and other economic worries, as well as with Macron’s leadership, which is seen as arrogant and out of touch with reality. The Rassemblement National party has exploited this discontent, particularly through online platforms such as TikTok.
For many voters, the rising cost of living and immigration were the main issues in their campaign, with the Rassemblement National playing a prominent role. However, the campaign was marred by increasing hate speech.
“People don’t like what’s happening,” said 44-year-old Cynthia Justine. “They feel like they’ve lost a lot in the last few years. People are angry. I’m angry.” With hate speech on the rise, it’s necessary to express frustration with those who hold and seek power, she added.
She said it was important for a woman to vote because women have not always had that right. And “because I am a black woman, it is even more important. There is a lot at stake on this day.”
The Rassemblement National challenges the right of citizenship for people born in France and seeks to restrict the rights of French citizens with dual nationality. Critics say this undermines human rights and is a threat to France’s democratic ideals.
Philippe Lempereur, 64, expressed his fatigue with politicians from the left, right and centre and their inability to work together on issues such as ensuring shelter and sufficient food for the population. “We choose the least bad option by default,” he said. “I would rather vote than do nothing.”
In the troubled French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, polling stations closed early because the authorities had extended a curfew until July 8. Last month, violence broke out there that left nine people dead. The reason for this was attempts by the Macron government to change the French constitution and electoral lists. The indigenous Kanaks fear that this will further marginalize them. They have long been trying to break away from France.
Voters in the other French overseas territories of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana and French Polynesia, as well as those who cast their ballots at embassy and consular offices across the Americas, cast their votes on Saturday.
